Robust growth in box office returns made 2005 among the best years for dream merchants of the Mumbai-based Bollywood film industry, but with stakes in 2006 reaching dizzy heights no one is cracking open the bubbly yet.

The Bollywood factory churned out more low-budget big-earner films since the beginning of this millennium but a cautious industry is not willing to go to town with its success and invite the ire of an evil eye.

Even the fact that most films that kept the balance of flops and hits tilted towards the latter were not the typical big budget ventures, has not enthused them to break free from old mindsets and write a whole new script.

"With satellite rights, DVD sales and collections in overseas markets, most well-made films now stand a fair chance of making money. But the real money churners that fuel the growth of the entire industry will come in 2006," a trade analyst said.

Now everyone is crossing fingers for the New Year when big filmmakers like Karan Johar, Rakesh Roshan, Rajkumar Santoshi, J.P. Dutta, Sooraj Barjatya, Yash Chopra and Subhash Ghai will unveil their latest offerings. Clearly, these old horses continue to hold sway on the sentiments of the industry.

But another year of success of middle-budget films is sure to change all that.

A private financial institution has estimated this year's gross box office collections at consumer spending level for all Hindi films to be in the range of Rs.10.60 billion ($235 million).

The absolute growth in gross box office collections over 2001-04 had ranged from Rs.2.39 billion to Rs.2.70 billion.

Reports quoted the study as saying the estimates for 2005 show year-end gross collections in the range of Rs.12.80-14.50 billion. This puts absolute growth in 2005 at Rs.2.20-2.50 billion and its year-on-year growth rate at 20-22 percent.

For a complete picture of success, income from TV rights, home video rights and overseas rights should be considered too. "The growth rate in total collections across all Hindi films should therefore exceed 25 percent," the report said.

In 2004, out of the top 50 Hindi films, nine earned in excess of Rs.250 million at the box office; 13 made it to above Rs.200 million and 12 films grossed below Rs.50 million.

In 2005, 12 of the top 50 Hindi films are believed to have grossed above Rs.250 million, 15 more than Rs.200 million and less than five films have collected less than Rs.50 million.

"We had an interesting mix of big-budget star-studded films and the middle-budget ones that fall in the genre of bold, sexy films, suspense thrillers and horror films," said Balkrishna Shroff of Shringar Films, adding that the year belonged to feel-good stories and serious films fell flat.

Factors contributing to the bullish performance are the growing number of multiplexes that improve recovery and add value to the screening experience, the higher number of prints used, higher ticket prices and better marketing of films.

According to trade circles, films that did well include "Page 3", "Black", "Kya Kool Hai Hum", "Waqt", "Bunty Aur Babli", "Sarkar", "Dus", "No Entry", "Salaam Namaste", "Hanuman", "Garam Masala" and "Lucky".

Prominent films that failed to enthuse the box office, despite quality in some cases, were "Bewafaa", "Paheli", "Kisna", "Padmashri Lalu Prasad Yadav", "Blackmail", "Tango Charlie", "Main Aisa Hi Hoon", "Parineeta", "Viruddh", "My Wife's Murder", "Chocolate", "Bhagmati", "Shaadi No. 1", "Kyon Ki", "Jo Bole So Nihaal", "Mangal Pandey - The Rising" and "Taj Mahal - An Eternal Love Story".

Rupen Amlani of distribution house Ashtavinayak Cine Vision Ltd says: "Star presence will no doubt play an important role. But films with big stars that are low on content will definitely take a beating at the box-office."

However, for those hoping success of "Page 3" and "Black" would inspire more path-breaking Hindi cinema, the wait is not yet over.

At the most a few films proved pleasant surprises with their straightforward charm and sound content. Most of the so-called arty films turned out to be no more than slightly unconventional and more realistic than Hindi films generally are.

"Socha Na Tha", "Chai Pani", "White Noise" and "Hazaaron Khwahishen Aisi" were critically acclaimed films, but had no box office prospects unlike "Page 3".

Some lessons were learnt in the year 2005. 'Bold' films that were initially sporadic became a rampant epidemic in the year. Thankfully the next year will have a few numbers as none of these films clicked at the box office.

That smart publicity and a catchy soundtrack are must ingredients for every movie - big or small - was another crucial lesson.

Hollywood, on the other hand, is facing a tough time at the turnstiles, with 2005 ending up as its most disappointing year in nearly two decades.

Hollywood is in "a deep existential crisis" with plunging movie ticket sales after a string of uninspiring remakes and movie sequels coupled with an explosion of DVD and video game markets, reports said.

"This industry is facing significant challenges," reports quoted Jack Kyser, chief economist of the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp, a business support and research body.